Bear or Bull for 2023?

The metals and mining industry is pessimistic about global growth in 2023, with 52% of CRU clients in the industry expecting global GDP to grow by no more than 1%, according to CRU's annual macroeconomic survey.

Inflation, energy prices, and the Russia-Ukraine war are the main concerns for the industry heading into 2023, with 70% of clients citing prolonged inflation as the most significant downside risk, followed by high energy prices (60%) and an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war (47%).

The majority of clients expect inflation to average between 3-5% in the US and 4-6% in the eurozone, and are more cautious in their expectations of EV market share growth, with 49% expecting EV market share to be 14-16% in 2023 and 17% believing it will be even lower.

Alex Tuckett, Head of Economist at CRU, concludes that the results paint a picture of a metals and mining sector that is cautious about the global economy in 2023 and mindful of the downside risks, likely a result of a volatile year.